Inflation, IRS, Credit cards, and Vendors

IRS loves inflation Since taxes are on nominal gains, in case of 10% inflation, the owner of a stock or a real estate becomes liable for a 10% increase in the equity value even though the real gain is 0%. Credit card companies hate inflation Imagine the scenario with 1% monthly inflation (~13% annual inflation). If you spend 10,000$ on day 1 of your billing, the statement closes on day 30, and you pay back in full by day 60, the credit card company lost 2 months of value ~200$! ...

Revenue vs Cost Axis

Revenue vs Cost Axis

Every business has revenues and costs. When the revenues and costs are not aligned, the business sooner or later risks bankruptcy. Let me illustrate with a few examples. A restaurant’s costs consist of raw food materials and labor. While the revenues are a function of the amount of food sold. So, in case the revenue falls, the cost of labor kills the restaurant business. A cloud kitchen, due to its reduced labor costs, is more resilient. The costs of oil (or mining) companies consist of drilling and transportation. While the revenue is a strong function of the unpredictable oil/mineral price. That’s why small oil and mining companies go out of business whenever there is a sharp fall in the price of the commodity sold. An airline’s costs consist primarily of the predictable cost of leasing the airplanes and the unpredictable oil prices to fly the plane. While the revenue consists of the number of seats sold well in advance. So, any fall in seats sold or any sudden spikes in oil prices leads to a disaster. A software company’s costs consist mostly of labor and infrastructure. While the revenue comes from the increased sales of the software. The incremental cost of serving a user is marginal, while the fixed costs are huge. That’s why landing a few big initial contracts to become default-alive can make a huge difference in the long run. An exchange takes a cut of transactions flowing through it. The costs and revenues are aligned. Further, if it is an electronic exchange, like stock exchanges or Ad exchanges, then the infrastructural costs are minimal and employee costs are less material. This becomes a pure money-making exercise.

One up on Wall Street

Book Summary: One up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch

One up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch is an impressive book about fundamental analysis for stock picking. Following is my terse summary of the same. Emphasis on Fundamental Analysis Look around for companies that are performing well and invest in them before Wall Street institutional investors pick them In the long run, common stocks give the best rate of returns Only basic math is needed to analyze and pick stocks “Don’t gamble, invest your savings to buy good stocks and hold them till they go up and then sell them. If it doesn’t go up, don’t buy it” Investing directly in common stocks is a seven-card stud-poker hand Rules of investing in the market Buy a home (≠ house) before stocks Only invest what you can afford to lose (without impacting your daily life) Patience, Common sense, and willingness to do independent research Ignore short-term fluctuations There is nothing called a good or bad market Predictions are futile ...

Safe Haven

Book Summary: Safe Haven by Mark Spitznagel

Principles Investing is a sequential process The only goal is to maximize wealth over time. Do not “narrow frame” it to focus only on annual returns. A risk mitigation strategy must lower risk and hence increase CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate)

Currency issues in Argentina

I have traveled to many countries around the world. Some accept credit cards. Some only deal in cash. Some accept US Dollars. Some only accept local currency. Nowhere, however, I have dealt with a system as weird as Argentina. There are myriad exchange rates.

What I learned losing a million dollars by Jim Paul

Book Summary: What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars

“What I learned losing a million dollars” covers the iconic rise and fall of Jim Paul in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as a trader.

The New Confessions of an Economic Hit man

Book summary: The New Confessions of an Economic Hit Man

The book is a memoir of John Perkins who worked as an economic hitman.

How do businesses make money

A charity is when your customers capture value when you don’t. A scam is when you capture value but your customers don’t. A business is when you and your customers both capture value. - unknown

Selected quotes from "How I Invest My Money" by Joshua Brown

Selected quotes from "How I Invest My Money" by Joshua Brown

The reasons behind our portfolios and investment choices reveal a lot more about us than we might initially think. Half of all US mutual fund portfolio managers do not invest a cent of their own money in their funds, according to Morningstar. " How Doctors Die” showed the degree to which doctors choose different end-of-life treatments for themselves than they recommend for their patients. This book does the same for financial money managers. “Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio.” - Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Red Notice

Book Summary: Red Notice by Bill Browder

The story of the rise and fall of the biggest foreign investor in Russia.