Finance

Every business has revenues and costs. When the revenues and costs are not aligned, the business sooner or later risks bankruptcy. Let me illustrate with a few examples. A restaurant’s costs consist of raw food materials and labor. While the revenues are a function of the amount of food sold. So, in case the revenue falls, the cost of labor kills the restaurant business. A cloud kitchen, due to its reduced labor costs, is more resilient. The costs of oil (or mining) companies consist of drilling and transportation. While the revenue is a strong function of the unpredictable oil/mineral price. That’s why small oil and mining companies go out of business whenever there is a sharp fall in the price of the commodity sold. An airline’s costs consist primarily of the predictable cost of leasing the airplanes and unpredictable oil prices to fly the plane. While the revenue consists of the number of seats sold well in advance. So, any fall in seats sold or any sudden spikes in oil prices leads to a disaster. A software company’s costs consist mostly of labor and infrastructure. While the revenue comes from the increased sales of the software. The incremental cost of serving a user is marginal while the fixed costs are huge. That’s why landing a few big initial contracts to become default-alive can make a huge difference in the long run. An exchange takes a cut of transactions flowing through it. The costs and revenues are aligned. Further, if it is an electronic exchange, like stock exchanges or Ad exchanges then the infrastructural costs are minimal and employee costs are less material. This becomes a pure money-making exercise.

The price variance one sees in the United States is huge. It is not just that price of “organic” groceries can vary up to five times. Even, something as standardized as coke would be sold in a restaurant for 5-10 times more than the grocery store next door. The same goes for non-perishables like clothes where almost all of them, despite being manufactured in the same set of factories can have a huge price range. Sometimes, even the quality is identical.

One up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch is an impressive book about fundamental analysis for stock picking. Following is my terse summary of the same. Emphasis on Fundamental Analysis Look around for companies that are performing well and invest in them before Wall Street institutional investors pick them In the long run, common stocks give the best rate of returns Only basic math is needed to analyze and pick stocks “Don’t gamble, invest your savings to buy good stocks and hold them till they go up and then sell them. If it doesn’t go up, don’t buy it” Investing directly in common stocks is a seven-card stud-poker hand Rules of investing in the market Buy a home (≠ house) before stocks Only invest what you can afford to lose (without impacting your daily life) Patience, Common sense, and willingness to do independent research Ignore short-term fluctuations There is nothing called a good or bad market Predictions are futile ...

A charity is when your customers capture value when you don’t. A scam is when you capture value but your customers don’t. A business is when you and your customers both capture value. - unknown

Car insurance in the United States is a system that more or less works well. You call up insurance agents representing different insurance companies with similar policies but varying quality of service. Then you buy it based on how much insurance premium they charge and how good/bad quality of service you are willing to accept. If you have an expensive car or you are a reckless driver, you end up paying more. The less you use your insurance, the lower your premium becomes over time.

The common belief is that in the case of perfect competition (“commoditized goods”), buyers will always buy the lowest priced item, and this will dwindle down profits to practically nothing, and that’s why it’s called red ocean in the first place. While this is true in general, there is at least one notable exception to it. Consider the example of toothpaste, in the US, a toothpaste is ~1-2$ a piece. Are buyers really going to buy a white Colgate for 10¢ lower price over a red Colgate? Most would just stick to whatever they are used to. And that’s where lies the real strategy if the good’s price is an extremely small fraction of the budget, it might never get optimized on. ...

KBB is used in the US for estimating the value of a used car before buying/selling it. While helping friends buy used cars, I felt that it always overvalued the car. I feel there is an anchoring effect in play here. A car owner (seller) feels happier checking the value of their car since it is being reported higher than what they expect. This provides a nice room for providing a discount for converting the buyer. A buyer, especially a first-time one, would feel happier since they are getting a discount on the KBB value. If instead KBB rightly priced the cars, it would leave no room for negotiation, leading to lower conversions. Thus, despite having no direct incentives, KBB would be inclined towards overvaluation. I wonder if the same thing applies for home-buying sites like Zillow and Trulia. ...

The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham is considered the bible of investing.

An economic activity has one more of the following impacts Wealth creation - for example, processes like extraction of oil, capturing solar energy and even repairing a broken device. Wealth transfer - for example, processes like selling a good, taxes and bribery/theft, though the last one is usually illegal. Wealth destruction - for example, processes like hurricanes, wars and riots. Most developing/underdeveloped countries usually lack sufficient wealth creation, but it does not stop there. They suffer a lot from man-made wealth destruction as well. Sometimes, they are obvious, as in the case of wars and riots. Sometimes, they are more subtle. For example, India loses 24% of electricity to transmission and distribution, as oppose to 6% in the USA. Or, for example, 30% of fruits and vegetable harvest is lost in India due to lack of proper storage. Tax, in principle, is a transfer of money to the government. Even if the government uses money inefficiently, it is still being used. While in the case of wealth destruction, the resources are simply lost leaving an overall poorer society. ...

Since I wrote the initial set of posts, quite a few people have asked me about good credit cards. So, I decided to write one about the same.